Issue
#45 – Not Exactly a Super Bowl
The Super
Bowl wasn't exactly a stellar game for fans to watch or for the book, but
Super Sunday was an overall success for us anyways. We set records for
handle, number of wagers, deposits and sign-ups. In fact we had more
sign-ups per hour on Sunday than we had in our first month of operation way
back when. Behold the power of the Internet!
Baskets were
very good to us and the handle was much higher than normal. Sacramento's
loss as an 8-point favorite in Toronto put a lot of sweetheart teasers into
the loss column and caused more than a few players to have lost their big
game wager before the Super Bowl even kicked off. We also saw a lot of
action on the Rockets (-3 at Chicago) and on Texas Tech (-5 vs. Oklahoma
State). Both lost outright and we were already in good standing.
Our goal on
the big game was the same as it is every year - to break even. There is no
sense in playing aggressively when there are no more big football games to
help win back any losses. We had the two teams even on paper but had to
handicap for public perception and the slight home field advantage for the
Raiders (shorter trip, same time zone, more of their fans, etc.). We have
seen a lot of Raiders action down the stretch (with the exception of the
even hotter NY Jets games) and the public was definitely against the
Buccaneers last week so after combining all those factors we opened at -4.
Early action was on the Raiders but after watching the trends at other
offshore books and in Vegas we ticked down to -4 (-105). We stayed there all
week and were fairly balanced but after the dismissal of Raider's center
Barret Robbins there was a definite change in public perception and the
Tampa money started to come. We moved down to -3.5 and then -3.5 (-105) and
got the Raider's money back we needed. At kickoff we were all even on the
spread with just slightly more action on the Raiders.
The total was
much easier where we bounced between 44 and 44u15 and ended up with
extremely balanced action. There was marginally more wagered on the spread
(for those keeping track).
The only
number that hurt us was the moneyline. We opened at -180/+160, which is low
for –4, but we expected dog money there. It was bet all week down to
-155/+135. Raiders action at that number brought it back to -160, where we
closed with moderate exposure on Tampa Bay (although much lower than where
we stood on either New England in the Super Bowl last year or Ohio State in
the Fiesta Bowl earlier this month).
Needless to
say, a Raider's win would have been good for the House but because of the
large amount of vig collected on the spread and total, we came out only
slightly in the loss column for the game on single wagers. Parlays were good
as we saw a general correlation with Raiders/Over or Buccaneers/Under being
common plays. The mixed result gave us a very solid 15% hold on parlays.
Teasers were also very strong with both the spread and total landing WELL
outside teaser range. Hard to believe that a 30-point teaser on the Raiders
and Under still would have lost both legs! As usually happens when the score
is that far off the mark, we held almost 50% on teasers.
First half
wagering was profitable as there was Oakland spread betting, no moneyline
and slightly more on the Under. Halftime wagering was slightly profitable on
very strong handle as Oakland bettors chased their losses by laying 4 in
droves. They did OK with heavy action on the Over though.
Quarter
betting was moderate in handle but very profitable as the Raiders failed to
win a single quarter!
Props were
very profitable and handle was incredible. We had more on the coin toss then
we had on all the Saturday night NHL games combined! I think that stat alone
shows just how big the Super Bowl really is. For the record, heavy action
was on Heads, the Raiders to win and the Raiders to receive so we had
profited nicely before the game even started. We did face some big losses on
props though. Had the first score been a Safety or if the game had gone to
Overtime, there would have been a couple of players buying new cars with
cash today!
The most
incredible stat for me though was that our handle for the day was in excess
of 75% of players' balances. Literally thousands of players had their entire
balance at stake. It was the end of a good football season and a great month
for the House. Let me recap quickly the rest of the playoff games here.
Wildcard
weekend got off to a bad start as bettors jumped on the Jets bandwagon and
rode them to a 41-0 win. The saving grace for us was the total finishing
just Under (it had been bet from 41 to 42 with most of the Over action at
41.5 and 42). The second game got revenge for the books as the Packers
straight up loss to the Falcons caught everybody by surprise. Another Under
made it a winning day overall.
The Sunday
Wildcard games were two of the very best in recent memory. Both home
favorites, the Steelers (36-33) and the 49ers (39-38), came back to win
despite being down 24-7 and 38-17 respectively. The high scores were good
for bettors but there were a lot of angry bettors who had wagers on the dogs
on the moneyline. Spread action was split with bettors taking Cleveland and
the points but losing with the 49ers. All in all, the day was effectively a
wash for the book but a great one for sports fans.
The second
weekend of the playoffs was not nearly as exciting. All four home favorites
won outright and only 1 game was decided by less than 14 points. Bettors
lost on the Titans –5 and the Steelers +180 but won with Over 44 in the
Titans’ 34-31 OT win. Bettors came back and got a win on the Eagles –8, but
lost with Atlanta +270 and the Over 38 in the Eagles 20-6 win. In total,
Saturday’s action was good for the book, but the big day was just around the
corner. Bettors were very evenly split on the Buccaneers/49ers game so that
result didn’t really matter (Bucs 31-6) but were in extremely heavy on the
Jets (spread and moneyline) and the Over 48. As a result, the Raiders’
convincing 30-10 win was one of the biggest paydays of the entire season for
sportsbooks.
The
Conference Championship games were also good for the book. Players were in
heavy on the Eagles and soaked up the Titans on the moneyline so the
Buccaneers’ upset and Raiders’ win/cover were both good results. The Eagles’
loss was another of the biggest paydays for the House this season. Players
did have success with the totals as both games went over the number.
All in all,
the playoffs were good for us. The best games to watch were early weeks, the
best results were in the middle weeks and so the Super Bowl was more than a
little anti-climatic. It is a good thing book-managers and sports fans alike
have come to expect that from the “big” game.
Thanks for
reading this past football season and I’ll be back in a couple of weeks with
a column on basketball and a look at whether there are any “key” numbers
there.
I always
welcome comments, questions and suggestions via email at
rob@bodog.com