In the last
column, we discussed runlines and moneylines for betting baseball, America's
pastime. Now lets talk a little about soccer, the pastime for the rest
of the planet.
If you have
never lived in Europe or Latin America, it will be impossible for me to
explain to you how incredibly popular soccer is in these parts of the world.
The word "passion" just isn't strong enough. There is simply nothing in
American sports, or American culture for that matter, that draws the same
amount of interest as a major soccer game in these places. Super Bowl, Final
Four, World Series, Olympics, Academy Awards, and presidential elections are
all major events and draw millions of viewers in the US of A, but rarely do
these events mean that roads will be deserted, that schools and business will
be closed, or that a favorable result will become a spontaneous day of
jubilation for the entire country.
Why doesn't the
US have any sporting event that reaches the masses on such a scale? It is
simple - the US is so good at so many sports. When you think of sports in
Canada, you think of hockey. When you think of sports in the Dominican
Republic you think of baseball. When you think of sports in England you think
soccer. But when you think of sports in the US: football, baseball and
basketball leap to mind. America produces the best teams and the best players
in these sports, and the best players from around the world come here to play
in US-based leagues. But in countries like Costa Rica, soccer is the only
major sport where they can compete on a World level. The collective national
pride rests on the shoulders of every player who takes to the pitch
representing their nation. Nobody wants to miss the euphoria that comes when
their team, and thus their country, pulls together and wins.
Enough
background, lets talk about betting on the sport. Betting on soccer is a
little different than betting on football or basketball as a result of
typically low scores (not typical are games like Germany's 8-0 win over Saudi
Arabia this weekend in Group E play, or Australia's 22-0 and 31-0 wins over
Tonga and American Samoa on consecutive days in qualifying last April). This
means soccer betting is more like wagering on hockey or baseball, in that
spreads and totals are not moved to balance action. Instead, the House
moves the attached moneyline to create value and attract betting dollars where
desired. However, there is a major difference between soccer and
baseball/hockey - the likelihood of the game ending in a tie. Baseball can
never end in a tie (although you should never say never, because the Yankees
and Orioles played to a 1-1 tie last September), and neither can playoff
hockey. Soccer, on the other hand, ends in a tie very often. With few games
and frequent ties, European betting shops simply added the "Draw" as a
wagerable option to increase earnings, and three-way betting was formed.
So when you see
a line like:
Portugal -250
USA +550
Draw +280
A bet on
Portugal is a loss, not a push, if the game ends in a tie. The same goes for a
wager on the USA. A bet on the Draw is a winner only if the game ends in a
tie, so if either team wins, the Draw wager is a loss.
Some North
American books (including BoDog) have added a more traditional spread for the
World Cup to make it easier for their clients to play. At these books, you
may see a line like:
Portugal -1/2 (-250)
USA +1/2 (+210)
Please note
that the attached moneyline of the Portugal spread is the same as the line in
three-way betting at -250. This is because the bets are the same thing.
Portugal -1/2 means they must win the game, and that a loss or a draw results
in the wager being a loser. Sometimes, the spread will be -1.5 (like baseball
and playoff hockey), but regardless, when betting favorites in soccer, you
should always check both the spread and the three-way moneyline to find the
best value.
The converse is
not true, though, as a wager on USA +1/2 essentially represents both USA +550
and the Draw +280 in a single pick. You can use this to your advantage to get
a higher return on your bankroll in certain situations. If you like the US to
win, why settle for a return of +210 on the spread when an upset can pay +550?
If you like the draw at +280, perhaps you may want to include the possibility
of a US win, and only give up 70 cents. There are many opportunities here, and
it is worth spending some time with a pen and paper working through different
scenarios to see where you can benefit.
Some soccer
games (World Cup games after the first round for example) require a winner,
but to keep betting options the same, books traditionally only accept wagers
for regulation time. This means that golden goals (overtime winners) and
penalty kicks (the shoot-out after scoreless overtime) have no effect on
wagering. Always make sure you are aware of exactly what outcome you are
betting on in soccer.
Two other
typical soccer bets are the Exact Score and Double Result. The
Exact Score bet is pretty clear - predict the final score. This type of bet
doesn't work very well in other sports because of the higher scores, but is
very popular for soccer. Double Result wagering requires you to pick the
outcome of the first half and the game. For example, Portugal-Draw would
require that Portugal be leading after the first half and that the score be
tied at the end of the game for the bet to be a winner. This is possible for
football and basketball, but hasn't caught on in North America yet, although
we had lots of action on this very bet for this year's Super Bowl.
As always, I
talked to Kent (BoDog's top bookmaker) about the House's recent
success. "The last couple of rounds of the playoffs have been a tough
grind for us. The road teams are having big success, and some players are
cashing in by taking the points. It's very different from recent years, where
the favorites get all the action. Baseball is up-and-down, although
losses by the Yankees and Red Sox yesterday with Clemens and Pedro starting
resulted in a very big day for us. The World Cup has been good, with
Senegal's upset of France to open the tournament getting us off to a very
profitable start."
I'll be back in
a couple of weeks with a further look at the World Cup, and a recap of the NBA
season from the House's point-of-view
