Issue #9 - Betting on Basketball

Now that the football season has been put to bed and the swelling in our thumbs from overuse of the remote control has diminished, we can turn our attention to basketball. College hoops will dominate the headlines for the month of March as the Championship Tournament runs it course and then the NBA Playoffs will be upon us. So there is no better time to discuss the advantages of betting on basketball than right now.

Over 90% of our clientele bet on football, but only 60-70% bet on basketball, and that number surprises me. I personally feel that basketball may be easier to bet for a few reasons, and that is what I want to talk about in this issue. I've asked one of the top football/basketball handicapper for his opinion on the subject as well.

First, lets look at what these two sports have in common. From the House's point-of-view, football and basketball are the bread-and-butter sports. These two sports alone account for approximately two-thirds of annual betting handle with baseball, hockey, golf, boxing, NASCAR, etc. making up the other 33%. There are two main reasons for this: college programs, and easy-to-understand lines.

Both football and basketball have college programs that provide almost all the players for the professional leagues, while college baseball and college hockey programs only get the players that aren't drafted directly out of high school or are seeking the guarantee of a college education before taking the gamble of trying to play professional sports. These college programs for football and basketball are highly competitive, widely televised and popular for wagering. For these reasons they allow us to watch future professional superstars develop. Players like Michael Jordan and Peyton Manning had outstanding college careers before their success in the pros. Betting on college games accounts for roughly half of the total wagering on basketball and a little less than that for football. Make no mistake, on a per-game basis the wagering on the pros is much, much heavier, but the sheer volume of college games (with as many as 80 boarded college football games/week vs. 15 in the NFL and 250+ boarded college basketball games/week vs. 50 or so in the NBA) makes up the difference.

Other than having the best players, college football and college basketball are also popular in wagering terms for the same reasons the professional versions are popular - easy-to-understand lines. Football and basketball are both bet primarily using pointspreads and totals with a built in vig of 10% - easy for bettors and easy for bookmakers. Baseball, hockey and other sports rely on moneylines, runlines, pucklines, etc. which confuse many bettors (especially novices) and this confusion reduces the total handle on these sports. I've been asked many times by neophyte gamblers as to why other sports don't adopt similar betting styles, and the answer is that the scores don't allow it. The average NFL game has about 40 points scored and the average NBA game has a little over 190, while baseball averages somewhere around 10, and hockey comes in a little under 6. The margin of victory in a football or basketball game can easily range as high as 20 points for either team with many games coming well over this number. Once or twice a year a baseball game will end with a team up 20 runs, but the majority of games are decided by less than 4 runs. A 5-goal victory in hockey is considered a pounding and I don't think we'll see a 20-goal victory in the NHL anytime soon. These wider scoring ranges also show up in totals. A typical NFL game will have 10-60 points scored, an NBA game 160-220 where baseball is typically confined to 2-15 and hockey 2-8. The smaller ranges for these other sports make the likelihood off the final score landing on a line much more probable and would dramatically increase the chances of bookmakers getting sided or middled if pointspreads and totals were used in the same way they are in football and basketball. The wide range of potential margins of victory and totals in football and basketball is large enough to allow spreads and totals to be offered in the simple way that they are, which most bettors understand and are willing to bet on.

Now that we know what makes these two sports especially popular for bettors, I want to talk a little more about the differences between them and the advantages of betting basketball. First, lets talk about the lines themselves. In previous issues, I've discussed key numbers in football so I won't go into too much detail, but suffice it to say that there are no key numbers in basketball. This means that when a book is offside on a basketball spread or total, they simply move the number a half point and see what happens, with little risk of a side or a middle. If the exposure continues to build, the line can be moved again, and so on. With football and its key pointspread numbers of 3,4,6,7 and 10, this isn't as simple for the house, and they must balance the action in other ways so you get strange lines like +3 (-120). Basketball lines are easier for the house to manage (which is good because there are so many games) and as such they are easier for the bettors.

The sports themselves lead to some advantages for basketball. The shape of the ball is a simple difference. The odd shape of a football makes for some funny bounces and adds an element of luck to things like kickoffs and fumbles. Not very often that you see a basketball do something unexpected on its own accord. Weather can also have a big impact on football games, especially late in the season. No weather worries for hoops bettors. Team size is a factor. In football you have over 50 players on a team and at least 30 of those will see significant playing time. In basketball, only 7 of the 15 players will usually have an impact on the game. Fewer impact players to keep track of makes handicapping easier. Basketball referees are full-time employees while football refs only work weekends and usually work another job during the week. I'm not saying football refs are worse (just ask Mark Cuban about basketball officiating) and in fact the smaller group of refs for basketball could impact a game more if one official has a bad game. Another factor is the amount of scoring in each game. A typical NFL game has around 8 scoring plays but a typical NBA game has around 100 so the impact of one turnover is far more dramatic in football than it is in basketball. The first score of this year's Super Bowl is a good example. Injuries are also far more common in football. How many times have you bet a team and watched a key player go down in the first quarter? It can sure be frustrating. In my humble opinion, all these factors make basketball easier to predict than football. As a result many books pay lower odds on basketball teasers than they do for football.

There is one major difference between the sports that probably explains why fewer players bet basketball and that is the number of games played. Football teams play just once a week so novice bettors have lots of time to do research and make their plays. Many sports fans are introduced to betting through football pools and parlay cards, which work so well in football because of the one game per week nature of the sport. Basketball teams play 2-4 times per week and less experienced bettors may feel that the pace is too fast if they try to spend the same amount of time handicapping every basketball game as they do for every football game. This may be the main reason why so many more bettors bet football than bet basketball.

I asked Big Al McMordie of www.bigal.com for his opinion on basketball vs. football and he sees the extra games as an advantage. In his own words: "I think the key difference between basketball and football is that there are so many more games. Because the season is much longer, each individual game takes on less importance than a single football game, which could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. With basketball, the season really is a grind, and teams go through many up and down periods. As a handicapper, I look for situations which might be ideal for a team to have a letdown or, conversely, rebound off a poor performance." He is having another winning year in hoops (only 1 losing season in 10 years!) and is ranked in the Top 5 for hoops this year so he must be on to something. Being a professional, he may have more time to handicap all the games than you or I do, but it's all just a matter of not trying to do to much and seeing the large number of games as an opportunity.

In summary, football and basketball offer almost identical betting options, but basketball offers more opportunities and should be easier to handicap. There are games every day and if experienced, bettors don't worry if they don't get a play in every day. If you find handicapping basketball intimidating, try following just a handful of teams. This should give you 10-15 games to look at a week and as you get more confident, you can expand from there. Expanding your gambling horizons from the gridiron to the hardwood will increase your opportunities to bump up your bankroll.

Issue #10 - Betting on Basketball, Part II

Last week, I put on my bettor/handicapper hat and discussed the advantages of betting basketball from that point of view. I want to thank Big Al McMordie again for his thoughts on the subject. Now, I want to talk about basketball a little more from the perspective of a book manager, and I will thank BoDog's number-one guy, Kent, in advance for his input into this article.

I asked Kent to compare football and basketball from his standpoint as a bookmaker, and this is a summary of the conversation. Traditionally, basketball has been less profitable than football on a percentage basis for a few reasons.

First, players play fewer teasers in basketball than in football. Teasers retain a higher percentage for the house than do straights, so fewer teasers means a slightly lower hold percentage. The theory is that there is more teaser action in football because of key numbers. Teasing the NY Giants from -8 to -2 crosses the key numbers of 7,6,4 and 3 and should greatly increase the chance of winning that bet. On the other hand, the impact of teasing the NY Knicks from -7 to -3 is more difficult to measure, as there are no key numbers crossed in that play. I'll talk about this a little bit more in a moment.

Second, there are more games so any one upset is less likely to impact the bottom line as much as any one football game. Imagine what a Monday Night Football game upset would do for the numbers. It would take 10-12 basketball upsets during the week to have the same positive effect on the bottom line. The biggest reason for basketball holding slightly less than football is the same reason teasers get less action and that the lines are easier to run from the House's viewpoint - no key numbers. Moving the line from -2.5 to -3 to -3.5 to -4 would never be done in football, but isn't uncommon in basketball. If the favorite wins by 3, the book can be middled. If the favorite wins by 4, the book can be sided. As a result of the more frequent line moves, sides and middles are slightly more common, and the House holds a slightly lower percentage.

I want to talk about the key number issue for just a moment. I have received several emails from readers saying that they've read about 4 or 5 being key numbers in basketball. I asked a couple of professional gamblers, as well as Kent, what they thought of this theory and there seemed to be a consensus. All agreed that 4 and 5 are important numbers, but not because the score lands there often. It is important because of the change in the style of play late in a game around these scores. If a team is down by 3, they can tie the score with a single possession and are usually more willing to play defense than they would be if they were down by 4 or more. Being down by at least two possessions forces them to foul the opposition and this changes the complexion of the game greatly. Also, with basketball teasers being 4, 4.5 or 5 points, a tease from being a favorite of 5 to being a favorite of -.5 is a popular play because it means the favorite just has to win outright. Kent mentioned that moving from -4.5 to -5.5 doesn't have near the same effect of moving from -5.5 to -6.5 in football. He sums it up with "The majority of basketball bettors are just looking for the best line they can get, and key numbers doesn't figure into their thinking very much, if at all."

Another topic that was asked about in emails was the impact of professional gamblers in basketball vs. football. I brought this up in my discussion with Kent as well. "All the sharpest players play football AND basketball" he said, "but not all recreational gamblers play basketball, so there is a higher percentage of wiseguy dollars in hoops than there is in football". I touched on this very issue a little bit in my last column so I won't harp on why I think everybody should bet basketball here, but suffice it to say that the access to information also impacts basketball betting significantly. It wasn't very long ago that inside information was worth its weight in gold when it came to betting sports. Knowing who was playing hurt, or who might not play at all, or who was being traded etc. meant that a bettor could lay big sums knowing that he would hit enough winners based in that info to turn a profit. Nowadays, that information is plastered all over the Internet, especially in football. Detailed, accurate injury reports, weather forecasts, etc. mean that the average bettor now has access to the same information that was available only to the wealthy and well-connected just a decade ago. Basketball is following suit, although there definitely still exists the opportunity for insiders to gain the upper hand. I asked Kent for an example and he laughed, noting that there was one just the other day. "This past Friday, the 76ers were a 1.5-point favorite and the action was balanced. Late in the day, action began to pour in on New Jersey and we couldn't figure out why. We moved to -1 and then to "Pick" to balance it, but the action was still coming in big lumps on New Jersey. We were getting concerned, and then word came that Allen Iverson (of the 76ers) showed up late for the shoot-around for a game against the Nets and wasn't going to start. Apparently it was being reported on the radio in Philly and so some people were betting on the Nets, thinking Iverson would be steamed. Once the information was public, the steam on the game slowed and then stopped. Iverson comes off the bench with the 76ers already leading and pops in 43, the Nets lose by 8 and we cashed in on players trying to bet with inside information. It doesn't always work this way, so we were glad this game worked out."

There is one last topic from the emails that I want to discuss before I ask Kent for his comments on the college season to date. I had several questions about why totals are offered for just a few college basketball games, usually televised ones. I talked to a couple of book managers (Kent was still away) to get the answer, and it boils down to volume. If events have very little wagering activity, then the house takes on a lot more risk if any one bettor makes a large play. At this point, there is not enough interest in college totals on non-televised games for books to offer lines on all of them. College totals have also been havens for professional bettors, although as I mentioned above, the spread of "inside information" is making these havens harder to find. However, I believe we are only a season or two away from having totals offered on all games. After all, it wasn't that long ago that Halftime wagering was only available for TV games.

Before I sign off today, I wanted to get Kent's thoughts on March Madness and the College basketball season as a whole. "This season has been a good one for us so far. The parity in the PAC 10 mirrors the whole season, as there have been big upsets every week. The tournament is almost as busy as the college football bowl season for us, and perhaps is even more exciting. 64 televised games over 20 days makes for big handle, and that's all we can ask for."

Thanks again to Kent for his willingness to share his data and to all the readers who have written over the last couple of weeks with questions and comments. I'll be back in a couple of weeks with a look at NASCAR for all those who have written to me about it. I'll also have a look at how the brackets are progressing, and see if I can get any tips from the handicappers, bettors or bookmakers I talk to. Enjoy the start of March Madness!

Rob Gillespie is Operations Manager for BoDog Sportsbook & Casino (www.bodog.com)
Got a question or comment for Rob? Send him an email: rob@bodog.com