Last week I
talked about key numbers, and why book managers are often forced to
stay on a particular spread and change only the associated moneyline. We saw a
little of that this past weekend, as both the AFC and NFC Championship games
closed on or near 10, which is considered a minor key number.
This week, I
want to discuss Halftime wagering and the opportunities that arise by
betting on a sporting event where you have already seen half the game before
you make your play. I'll also take a look at the line movements for the AFC
and NFC Championship games. Once again, I want to thank BoDog's head
bookmaker, Kent, for providing us with this inside information.
For those of
you who may be unfamiliar, Halftime wagering is available for football and
basketball, and is wagering on the score of the second half only,
including Overtime if applicable. The lines become available at or near the
end of the first half, and are available only until the second half starts.
This makes Halftime wagering very different from other forms of sports
wagering. For most events, you can handicap the game well in advance and you
can spend lots of time shopping for the best line to give you the best chance
of winning. With halftime betting, you have little or no time to handicap or
to shop for the best line, but you do have the advantage of having seen the
teams play. Book managers do not have time to handicap halftime lines either
(they rely on a comparison of their handicapping for the entire game, action
on the game and the score to determine their halftime line) and no sportsbook
can watch every game, so if you are watching an event where the score is not
indicative of the actual play, you may be able to take advantage of the lines
and find a very juicy play. Perhaps one team was hit with a rash of injuries,
or is in foul trouble, or rallied late in the first half and looks to have
momentum - situations like these can be very profitable for disciplined
players. With Halftime wagering, the bettor has an advantage in getting to
watch the teams play before wagering, and the House has an advantage in that
players have very little time to handicap or shop for lines. There are a
couple of particular situations that arise that can provide the player with
the ultimate edge, but first I should mention that Key Numbers are very
important in Halftime wagering as they occur with even greater frequency for a
half than they do for a game. Please refer to last week's article if you are
unsure what this means.
One opportunity
comes when you have played on an underdog and they are ahead at the end of the
First Half. Bettors who played on New England were presented with such an
opportunity this past weekend. The line opened at Pittsburgh -8, and early
sharp action as well as public money bet the line up to 9.5 by Friday. Public
money continued through the weekend and the line went as high as -10. At +10,
the sharp money came in on New England (although I talked to a few
professionals that were able to get 10.5 on the Patriots at some books!) and
public money continued to play on the Steelers. Kent told me he had the game
close to balanced, given the large handle of a Conference Championship game,
but the House was cheering for New England slightly. With the score 14-3 for
New England at Halftime, it was looking good for Kent, and bad for most of the
public players. But if you had played on New England, you now had a chance to
profit twice without risk of a loss. I know this sounds too good to be
true, but with the Patriots up by 11 and getting 10 points, this was
effectively a 21-point lead for betting purposes, and those bets were looking
like winners. The Halftime line was Pittsburgh -7, so if you had New England
for the game and the Steelers -7 in the second half, you could win both, but
not lose both. If the Steelers mounted a miraculous comeback and covered the
game line, your second half winner would payoff, as they would have had to
outscore the Patriots by at least 21 for the second half. However, if the
Steelers win the second half by 8-20, you would win both bets. Steelers by
less than 7 would mean you break even (less the vig), and this was indeed the
case this weekend. I don't advocate trying to play middles like this, as you
worked hard to get a winner with your Patriots bet only to end up with nothing
(its kind of like splitting face cards against a 6 in Blackjack). But in the
right situations it can be a profitable tool. A similar opportunity presented
itself to bettors with the Eagles in the NFC Championship game who bet the
Rams at the Half, and would have paid both ways. So you can see it does work.
The opposite scenario can also work when you have the favorite for the game,
they have a big lead at Halftime, and you play the dog at the break. So it's
worth spending a few minutes with a pen and paper working through all the
different scenarios to see how you can profit.
There is
another situation that arises when an underdog is leading at the half, and
I'll use the NFC Championship game to illustrate this point. St. Louis opened
as an 11-point favorite and was bet quickly up to 12. I think the public
surprised a few bookmakers in picking Philadelphia, and over the course of the
week, the line ebbed down to 10. This seemed to be the right number, and money
from both sharp and public sources split evenly on this line. Kent mentioned
at game time that he was a little off on Philadelphia, but that he was pleased
with both the amount of action and how it was divided. The score at Halftime
had the Eagles up 17-13, and the line came out with the Rams -7. As mentioned
above, players who had Philly for the game could take St Louis in the second
half and hope to win both but an opportunity also presented itself to players
that were undecided on the game and wanted to play the favorite laying
fewer points. If you liked the Rams, but thought, "10 points is too many",
then betting at Halftime presented a golden opportunity. With the spread -7
and the Rams down 4, St. Louis now only had to win the game by more than 3 for
the bet to be a winner. With the Rams outscoring Philly 16-7 in the second
half, they covered the Halftime line, but not the game, so seizing this
opportunity would have paid off. This obviously isn't any sort of system (see
the Steelers game if you want to see a case where this doesn't work) but it is
something to consider as the seconds tick down on the first half. The opposite
case can work as well, when an underdog becomes an even larger underdog if the
favorite has a big lead at the break. and you can bet the dog getting more
points.
Halftime
wagering has become increasingly popular over the last 3 years, and handle on
the Halftimes of yesterday's games was about one fourth of the handle for the
entire games, according to Kent. This much wagering action packed into 15-20
minutes can make for very rapid line moves, so make sure you plan out what
play you want before turning on your computer or picking up your phone as you
won't have much time to second guess yourselves. Sportsbooks offer Halftime
wagering because they make money on commission, so the more that is wagered,
the more they can make. As a player, you need to be aware that this extra
wagering opportunity can be very profitable if used with discipline and in the
right situation.
As promised, I
want to look ahead to the Super Bowl. I asked Kent how a line of Rams -14
would affect wagering. He told me that in the regular season, "lines greater
than -10 tend to dampen action slightly", as bettors are sometimes hesitant to
lay the big points. "However," he added, "this is the Super Bowl, and players
will want to have something in play, so we'll offer a lot of interesting props
for players who are nervous of a double-digit spread."
Next week I'll
review the action from the Super Bowl, and I hope to get some more comments
from Kent on how this NFL season was for the house overall.
