In the last
issue, we covered the math involved in betting moneylines. Many of the
hundreds of emails received in response to this issue asked how moneylines
compare to runlines. This led to an easy choice for the topic of this week's
column.
Before getting
into the details of runlines, there are a couple of loose ends that need to be
quickly cleaned up. First off, when I mentioned that heavy favorites (-250+)
were 15-2 (through April 25th) I was not advocating betting on or against such
big favorites, I was merely pointing out that there are values to be had at
all moneylines when compared to the necessary win %, and that you should never
dismiss playing on a line because it is too high, as many handicappers do.
The other point
was summed up perfectly by Jason D. of Texas:
"I've used
calculations like you did in your article for years. The only flaw is this:
the math doesn't work for 1 game or 10 games or 100 games. A large statistical
sample is needed. It is inexact, so the average bettor will take some of these
plays and start off 3-7 or 4-6 and say you don't know what you are talking
about. What these players don't understand is you are looking for value and
even though you lost a particular bet it is still considered a good bet and
you would bet the same bet over and over again given the same circumstances."
Well said,
Jason, and thanks for the email. I can't stress this enough and that is why
money-management is important - betting sports is a marathon, not a sprint.
Now, lets talk
about runlines. Experienced bettors can skip this next section, but for those
of you unfamiliar with runlines, here is a quick primer. A runline is
baseball's version of a pointspread. In football and basketball
pointspreads, the odds (which affect payout) are usually at a standard of
-110, and the spread itself (which affects win/loss) is typically moved to
balance action. In baseball, the spread itself is fixed at -1.5 runs, and the
attached odds are changed to balance action. I am often asked why the
spread is always -1.5 runs. The answer is simple: Baseball games cannot
end in a tie so a spread of -.5 would have no impact, and spread of -1 would
result in a push a large portion of the time (27% of MLB games this year have
been decided by 1 run). By making the runline -1.5 runs, the favorite team is
forced to win by 2 runs, and some real intrigue is added to the wager.
This does
confuse some people, so here is an example to illustrate further. In
basketball, if the Lakers were -1.5 (-110) favorites and there was a lot of
action on them, the line would be moved to -2 (-110) and then -2.5 (-110) in
an effort to get bettors to play the other team. However, in baseball if the
Dodgers were a -1.5 (-110) favorite and were taking action, the line would be
moved to -1.5 (-115) and then -1.5 (-120) to balance action.
Thus, the
only time there is a difference in outcome between the runline and moneyline
on any game is when the favorite team wins by exactly 1 run. In exchange
for the extra risk involved in wagering on a runline favorite, bettors are
rewarded with a much better payout. As an example, let's look at the games
discussed in my last issue. To recap, there had been 17 games with favorites
of -250 or higher at the time and the favorites were 15-2. If you wagered to
win $100 on each of these games you would have made $970 on a total risk of
$4530, for a 21.4% return. However, if you played these same 17 games on the
runline, you would have lost two additional games (a pair of 6-5 wins) and
only earned $700. That's the bad news. The good news is that you would have
only risked $2400, and thus earned a return of 29.2%! The average line on
these favorites on the moneyline was -266, but the average line on the runline
was -1.5 (-141). There is no formula for converting runlines and moneylines,
as it depends on the teams involved. But the difference typically ranges from
70 to 140 cents, with the difference growing as the moneyline gets high. Thus
a -260 favorite on the moneyline would typically have a runline of -1.5 (-120)
to -1.5 (-160) while a -120 favorite on the moneyline might have a runline of
-1.5 (+150) to -1.5 (+170).
Betting the dog
on the runline has the opposite effect - you win more often (the 1-run
losses), but you win less money than you would have betting the moneyline when
the team you are betting on wins outright. The key is to find the right
opportunity to use both types of lines, and thus giving you another weapon to
fight the bookmakers with. Again, I am not advocating runlines or
moneylines, favorites or underdogs, etc., as each has their place in a
bettor's arsenal.
There are a
couple of situations where we see players/handicappers use runlines more than
average. First, we see lots of runline action on the favorites in big
spreads. Why bet Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks at -300 when you get bet
him at -1.5 (-160) if you expect them to win by 5? However, if you think it
will be a tight game, then maybe the moneyline is better. This is where a
team's record in 1-run games is important. This data is readily available to
bettors, but when I ask about a team's record in 1-run games, most people
don't know. As examples, how many of you would have guessed that the Padres
lead the majors in 1-run wins (with 11) or that the mighty Yankees would
currently possess a losing record (5-6) in 1-run games?
The other
scenario we see occasionally is a player trying to lock in a profit by betting
both the favorite on the runline and the underdog on the moneyline in the same
game. For example, lets look at today's Rockies/Padres game. The Rockies are
-1.5 (+140) on the runline and the Padres are +130 on the moneyline. Betting
$100 on both teams would guarantee a profit ($40 or $30) as long as the
Rockies don't win by a single run (that would result in a loss of $200). This
is a risky set of wagers and not one I have ever used personally, but when
used properly it can add to your bankroll, as I have seen players profit by
using it. Maybe look for teams that don't have many 1-run games.
From the House point-of-view, we earn a higher percentage on run-line wagers
(about 4%) than we do on moneylines (about 2%) but this is due in large part
to the use of a graduated dime line for moneylines and a 20-cent spread for
runlines. Handle on moneylines is roughly three times that of runlines, but
this ratio is down from previous years as runlines become more popular to the
average bettor.
As I always, I
talked to BoDog's top bookmaker, Kent, about recent results. "May started
great. Then we gave a little last back this past week, but we just had a good
weekend. The Preakness was very good for us, and we had been getting heavy
action on the Lakers and Red Wings so yesterday's losses were good for us. The
Celtics also drew the bulk of the action on Sunday and we saw lots of Carolina
money laying the 1.5 goals, so both those results were good for us as well.
Baseball handle has been huge, far exceeding our projections for May already.
And despite a dip in parlay hold last week, our overall hold has been solid as
well."
