I have wanted
to write about golf betting for a while now and after watching the final round
of the US Open yesterday, decided this is the time. First though, I would like
to touch briefly on a couple of other topics.
Two weeks ago,
when I explained the basics of soccer betting, I expected that the North
American teams would be finished already and that interest here would have
faded by now as well. But low and behold, our little conference (CONCACAF) has
produced some good soccer from its three representative teams (Mexico, Costa
Rica and the United States) and with the US win last night (or was it this
morning?) over Mexico, there may be some interest left here after all.
I talked to
Kent, BoDog's top bookmaker, this morning about action on the US games. "Many
North American books are getting their lines from European sources as that is
where the best soccer handicappers make their living. The books in Europe
charge a premium for the UEFA (European) teams so there has been some good
value for North American players betting against these clubs. With France,
Portugal, and others playing poorly and making early exits there has been some
decent profits for players from this side of the water. The US game last night
was fairly balanced but had a little more action on the American side as that
is where the majority of our players are." Next up for the US squad is Germany
and it will be interesting to see if the American public embraces this team at
all in the next few days.
Next topic is
the NBA (yawn) Championship series and Stanley Cup Finals. The NBA Finals were
never in doubt but at least the Stanley Cup offered up a triple Overtime
thriller and went to five games. "Overall", according to Kent, "action was
solid on both series, particularly on basketball, despite the sense of a
predestined outcome. It wasn't the greatest playoff for the House as many
games finished tight to the lines, but we grinded out a small profit and more
importantly didn't give back our hard-fought gains from the regular season. It
would have been nice to see more even competition and have both series go a
little longer to boost interest and handle." Oh well, now the book managers
can get a little more sleep and get ready for the busy weekends ahead. NFL
training camps are almost here and the first pre-season game is just six weeks
away!
All right, now
back to golf. I want to focus not on Odds-to-Win an entire tournament, but
rather on the head-to-head match-ups between individual players that have
become very popular in the last couple of years. I must pay homage to King
Creole (of www.playbook.com) who sent me
an article he wrote on this topic a couple of years ago. It changed my way of
thinking about every sport I bet on and introduced me to the profitable world
of golf betting. In essence, his article detailed why golf head-to-head
match-ups should be considered the simplest form of sports betting. Let me
explain.
When you bet on
team sports, you have at least five and as many as fifty players that will
have an outcome on the game. Bettors often look for psychological reasons to
play on or against a team, but those reasons must be clouded a little when you
are trying to determine the mental state of dozens of players. Imagine Kobe is
a little down, maybe Shaq is pumped up and Robert Horry is in a zone where he
can't miss. How would you play on this situation? But in a head-to-head
match-up in golf, there are just the two players to consider (do the caddies
really count?).
How about time
clocks and referees? Have you ever lost a bet on a bad call or because your
team "ran out of time". I am sure the answer is yes to both. In golf
head-to-heads, there is no clock to run out and referee decisions are as rare
as a Shaq 3 pointer (OK, maybe not that rare, but you get the point). The
match is also held over four days so breaks, good or bad, tend to even out.
Also, these
match-ups are easy to handicap. You can view a player's performance in recent
weeks to see if he is hot or cold or you can view previous year's results on
the same course. Every player has a slightly different set of skills and play
better on some courses than others.
Similar
arguments exist for auto-racing match-ups but you never have to worry about a
golfer blowing a tire on the last lap or running out of gas (unless you have
ever bet on Phil Mickelson or Greg Norman but I digress…). Injuries are also
less of a concern in golf than they are in other sports. If a golfer cannot
play, he doesn't get paid so they take good care of themselves (and hopefully
nobody is running into them) and if they are injured they tend to take some
time off and make sure they are fully healed before participating to prevent
permanent injury. How many times have you bet on a team and then found out a
key player is hurt? Yeah, I hate that feeling too.
I think you get
the idea. Every Wednesday, you should be looking through the weekend's PGA
match-ups as thoroughly as you would the baseball or basketball card if you
want to be a more profitable sports bettor, especially if you are a golf fan
(or just plan on watching the final round on TV and want it to be a little
more exciting). Many bettors don't like golf wagering because their money is
tied up for four days. This is a poor excuse and is indicative of poor money
management. With a little research and a little planning, betting golf
head-to-heads can make you a more profitable bettor and make rainy Sunday
afternoons a little more exciting.
I am off to Las
Vegas next week and will be back in two weeks. Feel free to write me at
rob@bodog.com if you have any questions or
if there were any topics you would like to see covered.
Rob Gillespie
is Operations Manager for BoDog Sportsbook & Casino (www.bodog.com)
Got a question or comment for Rob? Send him an email:
rob@bodog.com
© Copyright 2000 - 2008 by Mark Hripko
